Financial Bloodbath

So I’ve decided to share my rational for dramatically changing my Pension investments, this is not financial advice. I got rid of any tech stocks I had last August after I saw Warren Buffett had done the same because he rationalised that they were significantly overvalued.

What did I do on Sunday?

Clearly there is now huge uncertainty in financial markets at the moment and the recent bounce (a temporary uplift after a hard fall)  is unlikely to be maintained, there will be further drops.

I have taken a calculated risk and moved 90% of my bonds and gilts investments into an APAC portfolio and global banking institutions.

So while bonds and gilts along with gold are traditionally a safe haven during market volatility, bonds and gilts may have deferred payments option during moments of economic crisis.

Gold like FX is highly volatile while capability to rapidly change when needed can be a bit slow, so I have ruled out this option.

I actually see a long term opportunity in APAC portfolio and commercial banking institutions, weather there is a global recession or not.

If there is a global recession

If there is a global recession an APAC portfolio (without USA) still holds huge value as often this area shows recovery quicker, buying at this point I will take a hit over the next month but since this is a long term strategy I expect my investment to gain between 100 and 200% over the next 10 to 15 years. Banking Institutions during a recession actually make large amounts of profit as they aid their corporate banking customers to restructure their finances, wind up failed corporations and sell off assets. Default is a risk but the institutions I have selected are focused in commercial banking where companies tend to have assets.

If there is not a global recession

If there is no global recession an APAC portfolio (without USA) after rebalancing and changes to the supply chain which clearly will be on every enterprise agenda now I’m expecting to gain 50 to 150% on my investment. With the Banking Institutions I have selected since they are focused in commercial banking there is a huge opportunity to supply funding for the realignment of the supply chain.

Ultimately it all a risk.